Prediction of the evolution of the COVID-19 in some countries

This page presents the potential evolution of COVID-19 in some countries.

Disclamer

The following predictions are proposed without any waranty.
I am not an epidemiologist
This is macroscopic predictions, i.e. a global analysis or an overview.
predictions are based on modelization of numerical data.
The virus propagation is assumed to be exponential.
Predictions are based on an unperfect sigmoid mathematical model.
Input data are from CSSE at Johns Hopkins University.
The model has been tested to model the COVID-19 in Mainland China.
This page is daily updated.
More details can be found on this page.
Sources codes are available on Google Colaboratory.
The models do not take into account a possible mutation of the virus.
The models do not take into account a slowdown in the spread linked to the rise in temperatures.
More details are available on the french versions of these pages.
Predictions assume that the number of daily test is constant, which is probably not a realistic assumption.

Our numerical model estimate the following projections :

Black dots are the real official data
Blue line is the prediction
The red curve is the most pessimistic prediction
The green curve is the most optimistic prediction

Predictions are only calculated for countries with a cumulated number of confirmed cases greater than 800, otherwise data are considered as non reliable.

Last update: 2020-05-19 at 08:10 UTC