Prediction of the evolution of the COVID-19
- The following predictions are proposed without any waranty.
- I am not an epidemiologist
- This is macroscopic predictions, i.e. a global analysis or an overview.
- predictions are based on modelization of numerical data.
- The virus propagation is assumed to be exponential.
- Predictions are based on an unperfect sigmoid mathematical model.
- Input data are from CSSE at Johns Hopkins University.
- The model has been tested to model the COVID-19 in Mainland China.
- This page is daily updated.
- More details can be found on this page.
- Sources codes are available on Google Colaboratory.
- The models do not take into account a possible mutation of the virus.
- The models do not take into account a slowdown in the spread linked to the rise in temperatures.
- More details are available on the french versions of these pages.
- Predictions assume that the number of daily test is constant, which is probably not a realistic assumption.
Last update : 04/04/2020