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Prediction of the evolution of the COVID-19
The following predictions are proposed without any waranty.
I am not an epidemiologist
This is macroscopic predictions, i.e. a global analysis or an overview.
predictions are based on modelization of numerical data.
The virus propagation is assumed to be exponential.
Predictions are based on an unperfect sigmoid mathematical model.
Input data are from
CSSE at Johns Hopkins University
The model has been tested to
model the COVID-19 in Mainland China
This page is daily updated.
More details can be found on
Sources codes are available on
The models do not take into account a possible mutation of the virus.
The models do not take into account a slowdown in the spread linked to the rise in temperatures.
More details are available on the french versions of these pages.
Predictions assume that the number of daily test is constant, which is probably not a realistic assumption.
Prediction of confirmed cases in France
Prediction of deaths in France
Predictions of confirmed cases in other countries
Predictions of deaths in other countries
Prediction of the evolution of the COVID-19 deaths in some countries
Prediction of the evolution of the COVID-19 in some countries
Modelization of COVID-19 for Mainland China
Last update : 04/04/2020
© Philippe Lucidarme